Fertility & Fiscal Space
Gender Equity as a Catalyst for
Economic Transformation in Africa
Population Forecast
- UN forecasts peak population over 10.3 billion by century’s end.
- Declining growth rates despite rising total numbers.
- The dynamics of TFR, population growth & replacement level (2.1).
Regional TFR
Sub-regions TFR
Demographic Composition
- Demographic dividend is a (short) window of opportunity
- Age distribution define the priorities for public policy planning
Demographic Composition Conditions Policy Planning
The composition of the population, specifically its age distribution, provides valuable insights into the social and economic priorities for public policy planning. Countries not nearing the demographic dividends’ stage, i.e. where the majority of the population is not of working age, may face varying levels of dependency ratios. These ratios can be imbalanced towards either high child dependency or old-age dependency.
Demographic Dividend-Driven Fiscal Presures
- Dependency ratios: child vs. old-age dependency.
- High child dependency strains public investment.
High child dependency puts fiscal pressure on per capita education spending
[…] high child dependency ratios can strain per capita public investment and hinder job growth. If the growth of the school-age population outpaces education budgets, per capita spending on education will decrease, impacting future growth and employment prospects, which rely on quality education today.
Youth Employment Challenge
- Struggle to create well-paying, stable jobs.
- Projected 54% increase in working-age population by 2060.
- Importance of job-creating policies to leverage demographic surge.
High child dependency also puts progressive fiscal pressure on future labor markets
On the other hand, African economies are already struggling to create well-paying, stable jobs, let alone address the imminent demographic challenge.
Reproductive Health
- The global total fertility rate (TFR) is on a declining trajectory.
- Population growth can still be driven by high TFR or population momentum, which sustains high birth numbers even as individual fertility rates fall.
- Transitioning to a demographic structure with more working people and fewer dependents allows for increased per capita public investment.
- Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights (SRHR) are crucial for the health and economic productivity of adolescents and youth.
- Addressing unmet needs for family planning can reduce high dependency ratios and support the growth of a productive working-age population.
- Supporting reproductive rights enables significant investments in each child’s health and education, preparing a skilled workforce for the future.
- Policy interventions aimed at empowering women through education, economic opportunities, and access to reproductive health services effectively reduce fertility rates.
- Implementing these strategies facilitates a demographic transition supporting gender equity and broader economic and human development goals.
- Population momentum can positively contribute to societal change by improving per capita public investment.
Conceptual Framework
- Governance and economic institutions as foundational elements.
- Pre-Dividend and Early-Dividend stages.
- Strategic sectors: Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, Education, Women’s Empowerment.
Next Steps
- Expand analysis with other relevant data sources:
- WHO (reproductive health)
- ILO (youth and women employment) and
- World Bank (Poverty, Debt Servicing, etc.)
- In-depth country-level parameterized reports
- Regression Analysis
